Weeks 13 & 14 were very exciting and full of great competition and even some upsets. As we are winding down the road to the end of regular season, I am going to be changing the criteria in my rankings to reflect that of the playoff seeding committee, the best I can. I don't have a total understanding on how all of this works, and cannot include all categories reflected during the seeding committee meeting. However, I will use these 4 categories in regards to my rankings.
* 1) AQ Record
Record vs. Non-League automatic qualifiers
- This is the teams record vs. teams that win their conference. The only teams that are automatic qualifiers in the State Playoffs are teams that win their conference. So for this category, I will only include the record vs. teams that are currently #1 in their conference. Keep in mind this can change, as their are several games left in the regular season, and anything can happen! Also, the criteria says Non-League qualifiers. So, this seems to not include teams within your own conference.
* 2) QW
Quality Wins (wins vs. teams with 18 or more victories)
- I will include teams that have currently have over 18 victories, & teams that I project should finish with at least 18 wins during the regular sesason.
* .500W
Wins vs. Teams with a .500 or better record
- Speaks for itself. Will only use teams that are currently .500 or better.
* BL
Bad Losses (losses to teams with less than 9 wins)
- Will only include teams that I project will have less than 9 wins in this category
** In Northern California, 18 teams will make the postseason with 20 teams making playoffs in Southern California.
Here is Coach K's unscientific look at his Top 15 in Northern California JC Basketball for Week 14
*Again, this is not an official ranking, this is only my opinion. This ranking is only as serious as you make it*
1 - San Francisco (23-1) Conference (8-0) (+1)
Jumps up to the #1 spot for the first time in my rankings. Also ranked #1 in the State Coach's Poll for this week.
KEY WINS: Chabot (20-5), Ohlone (20-5), Skyline (10-11) twice, Foothill (12-11), Mt. San Antonio (12-9), San Jose City (17-8), Cabrillo (17-6), Santa Rosa (15-8) 3x's, Butte (18-7), Delta (11-11) & Las Positas (11-13)
LOSSES: Yuba (18-4)
With Chabot taking a loss to Ohlone this past week, it's looking like CCSF is going to take the Coast-North Conference title. But this conference is one of the toughest in California so anything can happen.
How CCSF looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (2-1) Santa Rosa can make this (5-1)
QW - (5) will have 8 if Santa Rosa can win 3 of last 4 games
.500W - (10)
BL - (0)
2 - Fresno City (24-2) Conference (7-1) (-1)
Drops a spot in my rankings after falling to Sequoias in conference play. Already fell to #2 in this weeks coaches poll, but I considered keeping them at #1 until the COS game.
KEY WINS: West Hills (13-9), Chabot (20-5), Saddleback (20-5), Lassen (18-12), Yuba (18-4), Santa Rosa (15-8), Cuesta (18-9) twice, Allan Hancock (13-13), Sacramento City (12-12) & Reedley (11-11).
LOSSES: Sierra (8-16)
Luckily for Fresno, Sequoias lost to Columbia in the opening round of conference, this keeps Fresno in sole possession of the #1 spot in conference, for the moment. Could the lackluster conference be effecting FCC? I wouldn't be worried, with Coach Madec at the helms, their is never an off day, or night in Fresno, and I'm sure their practices are tougher than most their games at this point.
How Fresno looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (2-0)
QW - (6)
.500W - (11)
BL - (1) February 18th will be important for the Rams, as this is when Sierra takes on American River. Sierra currently has only 8 wins. With 4 games left, the American River game seems like the best possible chance for Sierra to get that 9th win. I don't think the Rams will have any worries in this department, Sierra isn't a slouch, and should get that last W to keep this blemish off FCCs playoff criteria this year.
3 - Chabot (20-5) Conference (6-2) (-)
The loss to Ohlone is a tough one for Chabot to swallow at this point. By sweeping the Renegades Chabot would have looked like a lock for a top 4 seed in the playoff picture. They still look good at this point, but they have left the door open for other teams.
Considered bumping them down a spot after they suffered their second loss in conference play. But they still hold the head-to-head advantage over their closest competitor, Cosumnes River. Ohlone is close as well, but currently behind Chabot in conference standings, so I cannot have them higher than Chabot at the moment. Yuba doesn't beat Chabot in any of the 4 categories. So this left Chabot holding on to the #3 spot in my rankings for this week.
KEY WINS: Cosumnes River (21-5) twice, Ohlone (20-5), Cabrillo (17-6), Butte (18-7), Contra Costa (13-11)twice, Foothill (12-11), Las Positas (11-13) 3xs, Skyline (10-11)
LOSSES: Fresno City (24-2), CCSF (23-1), Cosumnes River (21-5) & Ohlone (20-5), San Jose City (17-8)
Chabot seems to have a routine of falling behind early in their most recent games. They have put themselves in position where they are constantly pulling off come-from-behind victories. This can be an issue as you cannot count on these heroics all the time.
How Chabot looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (4-2)
QW - (5)
.500W - (8)
BL - (0)
4 - Cosumnes River (21-5) Conference (9-1) (-)
Could have ordered the Big 8 Conference Championship banners early had Santa Rosa given the Hawks their first Conference loss. Still rolling through one of the State's toughest conferences. 4 big games left, with Santa Rosa the final game of the regular season, and what could decide this year's Conference Champion!
Tied with Ohlone in 3 of the 4 categories. CRC's win over Cuesta is keeping the Hawks ahead in the category against Automatic Qualifiers. The Coast-North arguably could have 3 of the top 4 teams based on the 4 criteria I am using. But CRC is in first place in a very tough conference, so as long as they hold that spot, they should be sitting on a Top 4 seed in my eyes.
KEY WINS: Chabot (20-5), DVC (18-6) twice, Lassen (18-12), Las Positas (10-13), Cuesta (18-9), Delta (11-11) & Sacramento City (12-12)twice
LOSSES: Chabot (20-5) twice, Lassen (18-12) twice & Santa Rosa (15-8)
February 21st should decide this year's Big 8 Conference Champion. However, this conference is called the BIG 8 for a reason. Anything can happen, and any team can win on any given night. However, it's just an expectation that the game in Santa Rosa on the 21st will be the biggest game of the year for the Hawks.
How CRC looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (1-0)
QW - (5)
.500W - (8) Sacramento City & Delta must remain .500 or better otherwise CRC could lose points here
BL - (0)
5 - Ohlone (20-5) Conference (6-3) (-)
Evening the score with Chabot helps Ohlone dramatically. Has had a solid pre-season, but has struggled in conference play. Another loss to Chabot would have really hurt Ohlone, and they are now still in the hunt for 2nd place in the Coast-North Conference. Beats Yuba in 2 of 3 categories, so holds onto the #5 spot.
KEY WINS: Chabot (20-5), DVC (18-6) twice, Lassen (18-12), San Jose (17-8), Merritt (16-8) twice, Foothill (12-11), Modesto (12-13), Skyline (10-11) & Las Positas (10-13)
LOSSES: CCSF (23-1), Chabot (20-5), Foothill (12-11), Delta (11-11) & DVC (18-6)
How Ohlone looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (0-0)
QW - (5) if Merritt can win 2 of last 3 games (vs. Yuba, Contra Costa & Solano) you can jump this up to 7
.500W - (8)
BL - (0)
6 - Yuba (18-4) Conference (12-0) (-)
Has the Bay Valley Conference Championship locked in for another year. Still gets to play Merritt, Marin & Los Medanos one more time apiece. Is on a roll, but will the lackluster conference affect the 49ers readiness come playoff time? Their conference does have many teams over .500, so they are at least in a conference that can help boost their seeding resume for playoffs. If Merritt ends up with 18 wins Yuba will boost their resume even more.
KEY WINS: San Francisco (23-1), Merritt (16-8), Los Medanos (15-8), Mt. San Antonio (12-9), Contra Costa (13-11)twice & Marin (12-11)
LOSSES: Fresno City (24-2), Lassen (18-12), Santa Rosa (15-8) & Columbia (11-13)
How Yuba looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (1-1)
QW - (1)
.500W - (7) has a chance to pick up 3 more in this category with 3 of their next games against teams that should add to this category.
BL - (0)
7 - Butte (18-7) Conference (8-0) (+2)
Beating Lassen with a last second shot gave Butte sole possession of the GVC Crown. Butte is on a roll and will be another team the opposition will not be happy to see in their playoff bracket. The 2 potential bad losses are keeping Butte from being ranked ahead of Yuba.
KEY WINS: Cabrillo (17-6), Lassen (18-12)twice, Siskiyous (15-11)twice, Redwoods (15-9)twice, Las Positas (10-13), & Lane-Oregon (12-11).
LOSSES: CCSF (23-1), Chabot (20-5), Los Medanos (15-8), Siskiyous (15-11), Cuesta (18-9), Sierra (8-16) & Umpqua (5-16)
How Butte looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (1-2)
QW - (3)
.500W - (8)
BL - (2) Assuming Sierra does not get it's 9th win
8 - Santa Rosa (15-8) Conference (8-2) (+3)
Still in the hunt for Big 8 Champs, but needs to go perfect the rest of the way. Their tough pre season schedule is going to hurt them in some playoff seeding categories; (1-6) against potential non-conference automatic qualifiers. Getting in the Top 2 in the Big 8 will be impressive and allow Santa Rosa a decent seeding for playoffs.
KEY WINS: Cosumnes River (21-5), Yuba (18-4), Los Medanos (15-8), Modesto (12-13) 3xs, Delta (11-11)twice & Marin (12-11)
LOSSES: San Francisco (23-1) 3x's, Fresno (24-2), Antelope Valley (22-4) & San Bernardino (22-7)
How Santa Rosa looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (1-6)
QW - (2)
.500W - (6)
BL - (0)
9 - Diablo Valley (18-6) Conference (6-4) (-2)
Lost to Modesto & Cosumnes River, and pulled out 2 more victories against the bottom dwellers of the Big 8. Has most of their players back from injuries, and is able to compete with everyone, so most coaches should hope to avoid the DVC playoff bracket this year.
Their preseason resume is what's really keeping them ahead of Cabrillo & the rest of the crew. Cabrillo really does not have a good playoff seeding resume (based on the 4 criteria I am using). However, DVC is flirting with finishing worse than 3rd in conference play, which would dramatically diminish this argument.
KEY WINS: Ohlone (20-5), Santa Rosa (15-8), Santa Monica (13-9), San Jose (17-8), Sac City (12-12), Skyline (10-11), Cabrillo (17-6), Wayne CC (16-2), Foothill (12-11) twice
LOSSES: Ohlone (20-5) twice, Cosumnes River (21-5)twice, Modesto (12-13) & Delta (11-11)
How DVC looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (1-0)
QW - (4)
.500W - (9)
BL - (0)
10 - Lassen (18-12) Conference (5-3) (+2)
Cannot afford anymore losses in conference. Has 2 games left and needs to finish with at least a tie for 2nd place with Redwoods. If finishes behind Redwoods, Lassen is leaving themselves open to being screwed by the seeding committee. Lassen does, however, have a good resume to be an at-large bid. Unfortunately, Redwoods does not, and you cannot be seeded higher than a team that finishes better than you in your conference.
This is a testament to just how bad Cabrillo's resume is for some of the playoff criteria. Lassen beats them in all categories by a large margin.
KEY WINS: Cosumnes River (21-5) twice, Cuesta (18-9), Redwoods (15-9), Contra Costa (13-11), Yuba (18-4), Siskiyous (15-11) twice, Modesto (12-13), & Foothill (12-11)
LOSSES: Fresno (24-2), Ohlone (20-5), Butte (18-7) twice, Redwoods (15-9), San Jose City (17-8) twice, Cosumnes River (21-5), Mt. Hood (17-5), Sierra (8-16), Sacramento City (12-12) & Wayne CC (16-2)
How Lassen looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (4-2)
QW - (4)
.500W - (9)
BL - (0)
11 - Cabrillo (17-6) Conference (8-0) (-3)
The drop in my rankings is only based on using the playoff seeding criteria. Has absolutely the worst conference to be in, if you're trying to gain any arguments for playoff seedings. San Jose City is the only team that can help Cabrillo boost anything in any categories, other than the Bad Loss category, with De Anza possibly adding .500 wins if they can get over the hump.
Cabrillo really needs to lock in the conference championship by sweeping San Jose City. Otherwise their playoff seeding stock could suffer even more.
KEY WINS: San Jose City (17-8), Las Positas (11-13), Merritt (16-8), Modesto (12-13) & Foothill (12-11)
LOSSES: San Francisco (23-1), DVC (18-6), Chabot (20-5), Butte (18-7), Skyline (10-11) & Delta (11-11)
How Cabrillo looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (0-2)
QW - (1)
.500W - (3)
BL - (0)
12 - San Jose City (13-8) Conference (4-1) (-2)
The Coast-South Conference is really hurting SJCC right now as far as any criteria for playoff seedings. SJCC, however, can pull out a W on any given night, so they could be a nightmare for anyone in their playoff bracket.
Has a better resume than Cabrillo for playoff seedings (based on the criteria I'm utilizing). So SJCC has a better upside if they end up Conference Champs, as far as playoff seeding goes.
The 2 wins against Lassen in head-to-head may give them an edge over the Cougars, but that is only 1 of many criteria that is used when doing the seeding.
KEY WINS: Chabot (20-5), Lassen (18-12) twice, & Las Positas (10-13)
LOSSES: Fresno (24-2), CCSF (23-1), Cabrillo (17-6), DVC (18-6), Ohlone (20-5), Santa Monica (13-9), Merritt (16-8) & Reedley (11-11)
How San Jose looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (0-3)
QW - (3)
.500W - (3)
BL - (0)
13 - Merritt (15-8) Conference (10-3) (+2)
Has won 4 straight after the loss to Alameda. Has 3 games left, including another match against Yuba that could really boost Merritt's seedability if they can pull out a W.
KEY WINS: San Jose City (17-8) twice, Los Medanos (15-8)twice, Contra Costa (13-11), Marin (12-11)twice & Bakersfield (12-12)
LOSSES: Ohlone (20-5) twice, Yuba (18-4), Cabrillo (17-6), Allan Hancock (13-13), Monterey (10-13), Napa (7-16) & Alameda (2-15)
How Merritt looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (0-0)
QW - (2)
.500W - (8)
BL - (2)
14 - Delta (11-11) Conference (5-5) (NR)
Starting off the season strong, but has really been mediocre the rest of the way. The win against Sac City is keeping them slightly ahead of Sac at the moment. Needs to sweep Sac City in order to solidify a playoff spot, since Delta lost both the conference games vs Modesto (currently a 3-way tie between these teams for 4th place in the Big 8)
KEY WINS: Ohlone (20-5), Cabrillo (17-6), DVC (18-6), Sacramento City (12-12),
LOSSES: Las Positas (11-13), Columbia (11-13), Canada (5-19), West Hills(13-9), Reedley (11-11), Modesto (12-13)twice, Santa Rosa (15-8)twice, Cosumnes River (21-5), CCSF (23-1)
How Delta looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (1-1)
QW - (3)
.500W - (4)
BL - (1)
15 - Redwoods (15-9) Conference (5-3) (-1)
Has had a good showing in conference. play. Not sure how many of the JV games will count towards their record when playoff seeding comes out. Does not have a great resume for conference seeding.
Can easily be bumped out by Foothill, Sac City, Sequoias, Contra Costa, Modesto, & Siskiyous for a playoff spot if they don't secure #2 in conference. A tie won't do it.
KEY WINS: Lassen (18-12), Siskiyous (15-11) & Southwest Oregon (17-6)
LOSSES: Reedley (11-11), Mendocino (7-16), Modesto (12-13), Spokane CC (16-8), Los Medanos (15-8), Santa Rosa (15-8), Butte (18-7)twice
How Redwoods looks in these playoff seeding categories
AQ Record - (0-0)
QW - (2)
.500W - (3)
BL - (1)
Other playoff contenders:
Foothill
Sac City
Sequoias
Contra Costa
Modesto
West Hills
Siskiyous (plays both Redwoods and Lassen... could really be a spoiler in the last couple weeks)
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