Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Coach K's Northern California JC Rankings - Week 8





Yes, I took a brief holiday from reporting, but fortunately for all us basketball fans, the holiday was a short one for most Northern California Juco programs.  Week 7 & 8 had some exciting match ups and some teams, previously banned to the bottom of my rankings, have jumped up after impressive victories.
Santa Rosa, as I expected, won their Kris Kringle Tournament and proved they are still a top notch program.  DVC got their revenge on Ohlone, but Ohlone still holds a 2-1 advantage in the series.   San Jose City made big strides in defeating Chabot on a tip-in at the buzzer, and also made the Championship of the Allan Hancock Tournament, even though they suffered a Double OT loss to Fresno City.   Cosumnes River made sure Lassen didn't go 3-0 against the Hawks this year, but also allowed Chabot to go 2-1 over CRC on the year.
Chabot went 3-0 in their Holiday Classic with some key wins over CRC & Sierra after also beating Cabrillo in Hayward just before the Holiday.   San Francisco and Fresno maintained their current dominance by finishing off December undefeated.
In my opinion, figuring out the Top 5 was the easiest part of this weeks ranking, not the order, just who I consider Top 5 at this point.  After that, it seemed like any team could have an argument for or against being ranked above everyone else.
This is the time of year things really heat up, as Conference Play begins this week for the Bay Valley, and next week for all other conferences.   Be on the lookout for my Conference predictions soon!

Here is Coach K's unscientific look at his Top 15 in Northern California JC Basketball for Week 8
*Again, this is not an official ranking, this is only my opinion. This ranking is only as serious as you make it*



1 - Fresno City (16-1)      (-)
      Fresno maintains the #1 spot in my rankings after taking home another tournament title, this time in Santa Maria at the Allan Hancock tournament.  Had victories over Cuesta (10-7) 60-53, Bakersfield (10-5) 69-59, and San Jose City (9-6) 81-76 in 2OT.  Still overwhelming teams with their style of play, Fresno has had a solid preseason schedule, which is necessary for them as the Central Valley Conference won't offer them anymore quality wins this year to help for playoff seedings, with the exception of possibly West Hills.
KEY WINS:  Chabot (13-3), Lassen (13-9), Yuba (6-4), Santa Rosa (6-6), Cuesta (10-7) twice, Allan Hancock (9-8), & Sacramento City (7-7).
LOSSES: Sierra (6-8)
      Not much competition left for FCC.  They will have a tough one on a single game scheduled @ home with Saddleback (14-2) on 1/4/14 which will definitely be their toughest competition until playoffs start, with the Central Valley conference historically not offering much of a challenge for the Rams.

2 - San Francisco (14-1)    (+1)
       Decided to give CCSF the #2 nod over Ohlone, more on talent alone, and not based on current resume of victories.  Last week had a nice win over Cabrillo(8-6) 78-55 after taking home the Championship of the Delta Tournament the week before.
       Still dominant in transition & on the glass, CCSF is still a contender for conference as well as state this year. But they have Ohlone & Chabot ambitiously breathing down their necks this year in conference contention.
KEY WINS: Mt. San Antonio (8-4), Cabrillo (8-6), Santa Rosa (6-6) 3x's, Butte (9-7), Delta (6-6) & Sierra (6-8) twice
LOSSES: Yuba (6-4)
       Next up San Francisco is @ San Jose City (9-6) on 1/4 @ 3pm which may be the best game of the weekend.

 3 - Ohlone (13-2)      (-1)
      Ohlone drops a spot, but it doesn't have much to do with them losing to DVC, because they still hold a 2-1 advantage over them this year.  It is very difficult to beat a good team 3x's in the same season.  However, it would have been enough to keep them at #2 had they won the West Valley Tournament.  I just feel that CCSF has the talent level along with the winning streak to give them the edge at this moment in the season.   Ohlone does, however, have a much more impressive resume of victories this year and tougher preseason schedule in my opinion.  The Coast-North Conference will be an all out battle this year with several teams capable of taking the Championship.
KEY WINS: DVC (12-2) twice, Lassen (13-9), San Jose (9-6), Merritt (6-5) twice & Modesto (7-7)
LOSSES: Delta (6-6) & DVC (12-2)
      Next action is @ De Anza (5-7) on 1/3 @ 5pm

4 - Diablo Valley  (12-2)    (+1)
      Jumps up a spot after taking home the Championship of the West Valley Tournament where they finally got back at Ohlone, who has given DVC their only 2 losses of the year, with an impressive 20 point victory in the Championship game over the Renegades.
     Last week DVC beat Shasta (3-13) 99-59 & Skyline (8-4) 76-64.
Big man Tom Witzel has not played since Dec 14th, not sure how serious his injury is.  DVC has done well in his absence, taking 5 victories in a row.
KEY WINS:  Ohlone (13-2), Santa Monica (11-3), San Jose (9-6), Skyline (8-4), Cabrillo (8-6), Wayne CC (6-2), Foothill (7-7) & Monterey (6-8)
LOSSES:  Ohlone (13-2) twice
      Up next DVC opens up Big 8 Conference play against Cosumnes River (12-4) on 1/7 @ 7:30pm in Pleasant Hill

 5 - Chabot (13-3)   (-1)
     Chabot falls just one spot after a successful couple of weeks.  Lost to San Jose City (9-6) @ the buzzzer on the road, but then picked up 4 straight at home.  Beat Cabrillo (8-6) just before the holiday, and then defeated Simpson JV 109-64, Sierra (6-8) 74-72 & Cosumnes River (12-4) 76-63.
     Chabot reportedly dominated Sierra & Cosumnes River on the glass, and are averaging less than 7 turnovers a game.   Starter Cortez Barrett is back, and Chabot is undefeated with him in the lineup.
KEY WINS: Cosumnes River (12-4) twice, Cabrillo (8-6), Butte (9-7), Las Positas (8-6), Sierra (6-8)
LOSSES:  Fresno City (16-1), Cosumnes River (12-4) & San Jose City (9-6)
    Up next for Chabot is College of Sequoias (5-10) in Hayward on 1/4 @ 5pm.

6 - Cosumnes River (12-4)     (+3)
      CRC went 2-1 over the weekend at the Chabot Tournament.  Took wins over Lassen (13-9) 81-72 & Las Positas (8-6) 83-67 before falling again to Chabot (13-3) 63-76.
      Jaycob Velasco is a consistent force, and when AJ Bridges is playing well the Hawks are very tough to beat.  As example, in the 2 losses to Chabot, Bridges had 0 field goals & averaged only 1 point, but had 28 points in their win.
      The Hawks are legitimate contenders, along with a handful of other teams, to take the Big 8 Conference Title this year.
KEY WINS: Chabot (13-3), Lassen (13-9), Las Positas (8-6), Cuesta (10-7), Porterville (6-7) & Monterey (6-8)
LOSSES: Chabot (13-3) twice, Lassen (13-9) twice
     Up Next CRC opens up Big 8 Conference play @ DVC on 1/7 @ 7:30pm in what could be the game of the week!

7 - San Jose City (9-6)     (+8)
     Making the biggest jump of the week is 'Speed City'.  Won 4 of their last 5 games including a big win against Chabot (13-3) just before the holiday.  Took 2nd in the Allan Hancock Tournament after taking Fresno City (16-1) into double overtime in the Championship game.   Had victories over El Camino (2-8) 70-61 & Rio Hondo (5-10) before dropping to the Rams 76-81.
     Another physical and talented basketball team, San Jose is a team that can win on any given night.
KEY WINS: Chabot (13-3), Lassen (13-9) twice, Las Positas (8-6), & Sacramento City (7-7)
LOSSES: Fresno (16-1), DVC (12-2), Ohlone (13-2), Santa Monica (11-3), Merritt (6-5) & Reedley (5-6)
     Up next San Jose City takes on San Francisco (14-1) on 1/4 @ 3pm at home.

8 - Santa Rosa  (6-6)       (+8)
     Jumps out of 'non-ranked' land after taking the Championship of the their own Kris Kingle Tournament with key victories over Los Medanos (9-2) & Yuba (6-4).
     Has had the toughest preseason schedule in the state.  Has played just about every top ranked team in the state this year.  They are better than their record, and have a solid inside-outside game.  They have seen the best competition the state has to offer, so they will be ready for the tough Big 8 Conference play that awaits them next week.
KEY WINS: Los Medanos (9-2), Yuba (6-4), Modesto (7-7) & Marin (6-5)
LOSSES: San Francisco (14-1) 3x's, Fresno (16-1), Antelope Valley (14-3) & San Bernardino (15-4)
    Up Next SRJC heads all the way up to College of the Redwoods (10-5) on 1/4 @ 7:30pm

9 - Lassen (13-9)    (-1)
      Has played more games than anyone in California to date, which could benefit them as they have a young team.  Has gone 3-3 since our last ranking and seems to be a bit inconsistent lately.  But has had a solid preseason schedule which will benefit them come conference play.
      Recently went 1-2 @ the Chabot Holiday Tournament..  Beat Simpson JV 69-54 but suffered losses to Cosumnes River (12-4) 72-81 & Sierra (6-8) 72-89.
      The Cougars are a talented group and are another team that can win on any given night.
KEY WINS: Cosumnes River (12-4) twice, Cuesta (10-7), Contra Costa (6-6), Yuba (6-4), Siskiyous (10-7), Modesto (7-7), Monterey (6-8) & Foothill (7-7)
LOSSES: Fresno (16-1), Ohlone (13-2), San Jose City (9-7) twice, Cosumnes River (12-4), Mt. Hood (11-1), Sierra (6-8), Sacramento City (7-7) & Wayne CC (6-2)
    Up Next Lassen travels to Butte (9-7) to start conference play on 1/8 @ 7:30pm

 10 - Yuba  (6-4)    (+1)
     A long conference schedule prevents teams in the Bay Valley from competing in as many preseason games as others.  Yuba's last action was taking 2nd in the Kris Kringle Tournament hosted by Santa Rosa.  They had wins against Feather River (3-11) 93-87 & Marin (6-5) 90-64 before losing to Santa Rosa in the Championship 74-85.
      A talented group, its a little tough to figure Yuba out at this moment.  They are the only team to beat CCSF this year, but have also shown that they can be beaten on any given night, like the first round of the Modesto Tournament where the suffered a loss to Columbia (6-8) in the opening round.
KEY WINS:  San Francisco (14-1), Mt. San Antonio (8-4), Sacramento City (7-7) & Marin (6-5)
LOSSES: Fresno City (16-1), Lassen (13-9), Santa Rosa (6-6) & Columbia (6-8)
     Up Next Yuba opens up Conference play vs. Solano (4-7) on 1/2 at 7:30pm

11 - Cabrillo (8-6)     (-1)
     Cabrillo went 1-2 in it's tour of the Coast-North Conference, falling to Chabot (13-3) 61-69 & CCSF (14-1) 55-78 before escaping Foothill (7-7) 49-48.
      Cabrillo has a talented squad, but depth seems to be somewhat of a concern at times for them.  Is going to battle San Jose City for the Coast-South Conference title this year.
KEY WINS: Las Positas (8-6), Merritt (6-5), Sierra (6-8), Sacramento City (7-7) & Foothill (7-7)
LOSSES: San Francisco (14-1), DVC (12-2), Chabot (13-3), Butte (9-7), Skyline (8-4) & Delta (6-6)
     Up Next Cabrillo travels to Modesto (7-7) on 1/4 @ 6pm.

12 - Los Medanos (9-2)   (-5)
     Just not sure what to think of LMC at the moment.  Even though they have played in 3 tournaments this year, which they won 1, LMC still has the softest preseason schedule out of everyone in the Top 15.  This, along with a very lopsided Conference schedule that has less than half the teams with a winning record, LMC just hasn't faced anyone to prove they are higher than a Top 10 team.  They have yet to go up against a team who has been in my Top 15 for more than a week.  Santa Rosa would have been a statement for LMC had they not lost and lost so badly.  So yes, I am reprimanding LMC a bit right now, because I really do want to rank them higher and believe they are as good as their record shows. I understand that in tournaments you really don't have much control over who you play, but it's the single games scheduled that really show me that 'strength of schedule' was not a concern for Los Medanos.  Why would you schedule a non-conference game with Alameda (0-8) when you already are going to be playing them twice in conference?  Do you think Fresno City would want to use up a game by scheduling Merced (0-11) during preseason play, or San Jose schedule Gavilan (1-9) even though they already have to face them twice in conference? These are the teams that most top programs want to avoid.  Los Medanos isn't located out in the middle of nowhere like Redwoods and can surely put together a better preseason schedule than this.
Last year LMC was (9-4) heading into conference play, and finished (5-11) for 7th place out of 9 teams.
Yuba, Merritt, Contra Costa and the rest of the Bay Valley crew prove that they understand you need to play in tougher tournaments & preseason games  This is because the Bay Valley Conference just doesn't earn a lot of respect historically and you're stuck with 16 Conference games which limits the amount of preseason games you can play in.  If you're really serious about making playoffs and making any kind of argument come seeding time, it's imperative that the Bay Valley Conference teams schedule some quality preseason games.  Okay, that was for everyone who wonders or asks why I would have Los Medanos (9-2) ranked so low when other teams are (6-6) and ranked much higher.  It's because that (6-6) team would be 10-0 with the same schedule as LMC.....oh yeah, and they beat LMC by 25 in head-to-head competition.
    If LMC doesn't finish higher than 3rd in the Bay Valley Conference they may be spectators come playoff time.
   On a positive note, they still have beaten several teams over .500 and are reportedly a very good shooting team, which can mean a long night for anyone they face, if they get hot from beyond the arc.
KEY WINS: Redwoods (10-5), Butte (9-7), Marin (6-5) & Modesto (7-7)
LOSSES:  Santa Rosa (6-6) & Monterey Peninsula (6-8)
     Up Next vs Mendocino (3-7) on 1/2 @ 7:30pm to open up Bay Valley Conference Play.

13 - Las Positas (8-6)    (-1)
      Came out of the Chabot Holiday Tournament 2-1 with wins over Sierra (6-8) 64-63 & Simpson JV 79-64 while suffering a loss to Cosumnes River (12-4) 67-83.
      LPC is a great passing team and can really shoot the ball.  Has some good size on their roster as well.  Should be another tough game for everyone in the Coast-North Conference and be competing for a playoff spot if they finish over .500 in conference play.
KEY WINS: Siskiyous (10-7), Sierra (6-8) & Delta (6-6).
LOSSES: Cosumnes River (12-4), Chabot (13-3), San Jose City (9-6), Butte (9-7), Redwoods (10-5) and Cabrillo (8-6).
    Up next Las Positas is @ Monterey Peninsula on 1/3 @ 5pm

14 - Skyline (8-4)    (-8)
     Has the biggest drop in this weeks ranking after suffering two losses in a row.  Lost to Shasta (3-13) 62-64 & DVC (12-2) 64-76 in their most recent games.   Hasn't had the toughest preseason schedule but they have one of the toughest conferences in the state so they will definitely get a chance to show what they are made of when they face CCSF, Ohlone, Chabot, Las Positas & Foothill.
KEY WINS: Cabrillo (8-6), Marin (6-5) & Siskiyous (10-7)
LOSSES: DVC (12-2), Siskiyous (10-7), Modesto (7-7) & Shasta (3-13)
     Up Next they face West Valley (5-9) on 1/3 @ 3pm

15 - Sierra (6-8)     (NR)
     After reviewing most the teams schedules in Northern California I can feel comfortable putting a team under .500 in the Top 15.  They are the only team this year to defeat #1 Fresno City (16-1) with a solid team that can pull out a 'W' on any given night.
    Still not sure what to make of Sierra, as they seem far better than their record.  I feel they are somewhat similar to Yuba in that their is a missing piece hidden somewhere, that is preventing them from being a Top program this year.
KEY WINS: Fresno City (16-1), Lassen (13-9), Cuesta (10-7), Butte (9-7) & Modesto (7-7)
LOSSES:  San Francisco (14-1) twice, Chabot (13-3), Citrus (6-4), San Diego (9-6), Cabrillo (8-6), Las Positas (8-6), & LA Pierce (5-10)
   Up Next Sierra opens up Big 8 Conference play @ Delta (6-6) on 1/7 at 5:30pm


Honorable Mention

Merritt  (6-5)    
      Lost 4 of last 5 but still a legitimate contender for the Bay Valley Conference title.  Had a worse record last year prior to conference (2-7) and made a run to the State Final 4.  So could be deadly if they have a repeat turn around like last year.  Nothing like a mediocre conference to get some confidence and momentum into playoffs.  However, that being said, I believe it would be very difficult to make playoffs if they don't finish in the Top 2 of their conference.  The Coast-North & Big 8 are both very tough, and the Golden Valley Conference might be able to slide more than 1 team in the playoffs this year, which could steal that third spot from the Bay Valley.
 
Redwoods (10-5)
     I apologize to Redwoods.  Its tough for me to determine where to rank them with many of their games being against teams from Oregon which I don't know anything about.  This is their best start in awhile, and if can finish in Top 2 of their conference can earn a playoff spot.

Contra Costa (6-6)
     Like LMC Merritt & Yuba.  Contra Costa needs to have an incredible showing in their conference play to have any argument for a playoff spot.  The depth of Coast-North & Big 8 Conferences hurt them along with the resurgence of the Golden Valley which has just as much argument as Bay Valley does right now for 2 or 3 playoff teams.

Sacramento City (7-7)

Delta (6-6)
   
West Hills (8-6)

Foothill (7-7)

Modesto (7-7)

Butte (9-7)

Marin (6-5)




*Feel free to chime in with any comments or suggestions.*

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